Key Intraday Levels & Pivot Points

The “Key Intraday Levels” indicator was created by Dr. Winton Felt.  He also coined the term “Key Intraday Levels.”  The method of calculating key intraday levels is proprietary.  Hence, the data is not available elsewhere.  This indicator is new, and was introduced in September of 2015.  It has been “tweaked” since.    

The key intraday levels we publish can give an indication of whether an index is probably going to close higher or lower.  There is no indication of the magnitude of the expected move, only that the index will probably close with a gain or loss.  If it indicates a gain, the implication is that the index will have a generally positive bias for the day.  If it indicates a loss, the implication is that the index will have a generally negative bias for the day.

Therefore, if the Index can stay above the key bullish intraday level for at least 30 of the first 60 minutes, it is unlikely that the market will work against bullish investments during the day.  Likewise, if the Index is below the key bearish intraday level for at least 30 of the first 60 minutes, it is unlikely that the market will work against bearish investments during the day.

Bear in mind that the measurements are reflect volatility and our own estimates of probabilities.  A probability scenario based on closing market data, may become invalid in the middle of the day, or anytime, as the result of news events or sentiment shifts.  Some sentiment shifts occur when there are no news events.  For example, a passage of time can result in investors rethinking their positions.  The result could be new purchases or sales.  

This information can be especially useful for day-traders and swing-traders.  Even long-term investors can find this useful.  Why would a long-term investor buy on a day when the market is likely to decline?  It would be better if a new position did not have to “undo” the loss incurred on the first day of the position’s existence. 

Pivot Points.  Penetration of a pivot point level of resistance (or support) indicates a probable continuation of the rise (or decline), but it does not indicate anything about whether the index will close on the other side of the pivot point level that has been penetrated.  Neither a move above a Key Intraday Level of more than 30 minutes of the first hour, nor a penetration of pivot resistance levels can guarantee the direction of market movement.  It is just that the probabilities lean in the indicated direction.  

Please bear in mind that the Key Intraday Levels are calculated based on data available shortly after the market closes.  Calculations assume that no news events will occur that change the probability profiles.  News events can easily jerk the market around, and render our calculations obsolete minutes after the market opens or even before the market opens.