Notes, Observations, and Comments
Most of the more recent entries are near the top beginning immediately after the “Website Updates” information.
The Stock Market Review on the Home page is updated daily. Watchlist reports for subscribers are updated weekly. Our update schedule remains unchanged on “half-days” because we cannot obtain market data any sooner when the market closes earlier than when it closes at the normal closing time. Unavoidable delays may occur on any day. If we have not completed the update before the market opens the following day, check “Comments” below to see if we have posted a message. If there is no message, it probably means the delay is not the result of anything critical (such as a system failure), but that there have been only minor delays and that the information will soon be posted. We also post messages on the “Stock Market Review” (Home) page just above the comments (below the chart for the Dow.
If we ever miss updating our pages daily as described above, it must be because there are temporary technical problems that hinder our publishing. In that case, we may not be able to communicate with you to let you know when to expect us to be on schedule again. Please keep checking back, and be patient. We are in good shape financially, and have absolutely no plans to discontinue operations.
We have inserted a new item #12 on the Q & A page that we think might be worth reading for most of our visitors, and especially for our subscribers. The title indicates it is about performance reports, but it is about much more than that. There is an example of a “setup,” what makes it work, and how we might react to it. There is more about how we use the lists that we make available to subscribers, and so on. [the old #12 is now #13]
ETFs added to the database
Notice: We conducted a review of all actively traded ETFs to see which ones we could add to our database. As a result of this review, we have added 152 more ETFs to our database.
Wonder why we are always talking about support and Resistance?
The fact is that nobody really knows what the market will do next. However, knowing the location of support and resistance is extremely helpful to tactical positioning, regardless of what the market does. It is the most important, useful, and reliable information a trader can have. For example, placing a stop loss just below support can minimize loss if the market works against a position. That reduction of risk can enable a person to take a position when it would not be advisable otherwise. A stop order to buy placed just above resistance can enable a person to take a position early on a breakout with minimal risk and without a need for constant monitoring. Also, knowledge about the strength and location of support or resistance can be a help in estimating the probabilities associated with the market’s next move, or how far it is likely to be able to continue in a particular direction.
Occasionally, we ask for input regarding a service or some item that we post on the site. For example, we may be trying to decide whether or not to modify a scan report we currently publish or whether we should provide an entirely new scan report. For example, on one occasion we were thinking about providing certain lists free to our visitors. We wanted to know which of the scans we were considering would be most useful to our visitors, so we asked for input. The thought both scans provided very useful information. However, because we received no input at all, we canceled the project. Why? When we ask for input, we figure that if anybody cares about the subject of our request, at least one person should respond. A large number of people saw our request that they state their preferences, but not a single person cared enough to responded to that request. Therefore, it was reasonable for us to assume that the scans were not important to the people who visit our site. It takes resources, time, and money to maintain a website. Without input, it is sometimes difficult to justify the time and expense necessary to offer something, especially if it is free. A single response might have convinced us there were others who were interested. We are not trying to be “mean.” We simply have limited resources, and we must be efficient in the use of those resources in order to survive in the marketplace. We sometimes create new features, scans, or services. If we ask for feedback on one of these and no one cares enough to respond, there is a high probability that it will be trashed.
People generally do not respond when they are asked for input. Is it any wonder that so many websites have links that don’t work, images that do not display, and “support” staff that do not answer questions? People let website operators work “in the dark” and without any feedback. A result is that the Internet is cluttered with websites where the operators no longer try to get input, and if somebody tries to e-mail the Webmaster about a page that does not display, the “Contact Us” page is no longer functional. When visitors do not care what happens on a site, the operators of the site may stop caring as well. If you find a link that does not work, let us know so we can repair it. The site has too many pages, too many links, and too many images for us to be aware of everything. Help us keep the site useful. If we decide that nobody cares and we shut the site down, we will still be in the market, but the information and resources we provide will be gone.
The Stock scanner now scans for 6 moving average crossovers representing a broad array of sensitivities. In order to generate an alert, the crossover must be associated with a volume surge. The scanner conducts a broad spectrum sweep over thousands of stocks looking for the first signs of “life” or unusual stock movement in either direction. Scan reports are generated daily for subscribers. See the Stock Scanner page for details and a sample scan report.
It is one of our most popular subscriptions. It has been one of our most important resources for investment ideas ever since its creation over 30 years ago. It will probably continue to be so as long as we are investing. Unlike the stuff available elsewhere on the Internet, it does not consist of the comparatively anemic cookie cutter downloads from data vendors. Each stock has its own custom-designed valuation model. Its measurements are simply not available anywhere else on the Internet.
Ad links or Links to Other Sites…(if you find them, something is wrong with your browser).
On one occasion, we discovered that when using two of our browsers, our site’s pages had several links to ads and sites of other companies that were not placed there by us. These links were “virtual links.” That is, they were not really on our website. However, they worked like real links if we clicked on them. The browsers we were using were Firefox and Chrome. When we used Internet Explorer, Netscape, or Safari the links did not appear. That led us to the conclusion that our browsers had been compromised. We uninstalled the browsers, and reinstalled what we wanted. Please be advised that our site never places ads or links to other company sites on any of our pages except on pages designated for that purpose, such as the Links page or the Outside-Help page. All other links on our site pertain to our own site and services. We do not sell ad-space to any other firms. If you see a link on one of our pages, put your cursor over it or click on it. If it points to a location away from stockdisciplines.com, then your browser has probably been compromised. If you are convinced that your browser is not compromised, please let us know so we can determine whether or not the link is really on our site.
One example is a piece of malware that installs itself as a browser extension. The extension is called “I want this” and installs itself in Google Chrome. To remove it:
Go to Settings.
Open the Extensions panel and review the list of extensions installed.
Remove any suspicious extension by clicking the Remove button next to an item.
We added five key points regarding Bollinger Band squeeze alerts on the “Stock Alerts” page.
We now include the closing price for all EFs that make it into the top 100 for “strength.” Again, this is our own strength algorithm. It is far more complex and sophisticated than the RSI. In a good market nearly everything looks good. At those times you may not see much difference in the stocks ranked highly by each approach. However, even then the RSI will produce some stocks you would not want to “touch with a ten foot pole.” In poor markets, most of the “strength” stocks our algorithm finds will look far better than much of the stuff turned up by the RSI.
If You Find a Link That Doesn’t Work…
Please do not leave this site without reporting any link that is not functioning correctly. Links are tested when they are created, but sometimes links “lose their target” even though they have not been “touched.” There are far too many links on this site for us to keep checking them to see if there is a problem with any of them. Links look functional whether they actually are or not. We spend our time preparing content rather than checking links. If you find a bad link, let us know so we can fix it. For example, we discovered that a few links in the tutorial section were not working. We have no idea how long they were not operable, but it took us only a few minutes to fix them. When we visit other sites, we are turned off by functions and links that do not work. For example, if we try to send an e-mail to notify site owners that one of their links does not function, the e-mail comes back undelivered because the automated address is incorrect. If we try to find a way to contact them about it, the “Contact Us” page is off-line or non-existent. We do not want our site to be like that. You can help us keep quality high by taking the time to let us know immediately when there is a problem. Please!
We have added a “clock” in the “Market review” section that reports the time at our location in California. The clock helps provide a little orientation for people in Europe, Asia, and in other time zones regarding the timing of our website updates as explained in “Q&A” #14. If visitors know the difference in time between their locations and our location, they can even use the clock to set their watches. Our use of US Naval Observatory Master Clock time assures us of the accuracy of the time reported.
When we mention time with reference to editing or updating activities, we often use Pacific time, because that is where those activities take place. If we mention time with reference to market activity, we use New York time because that is where market activities take place. New York time is three hours later than Pacific time.
Talk To Us
Why not send us an e-mail with some feedback on the website? We won’t use your e-mail address to send you any ads nor will we sell it to anyone else. It would just be nice to know what you think. Unless you tell us not to, we will probably respond. Tell us what sections of the site are most useful to you and why.
Reminder: The “Strength” measurement used in The Valuator is far more powerful than the RSI. It is the same algorithm that is used in “Strongest Stocks” and “Strongest ETFs.” It measures recent stock strength and gives greater weighting to stocks that show more strength consistency. It screens out much of the “junk” that the RSI lets through. Our proprietary algorithm makes at least 4 separate weighted measurements and composite scores are created for each stock. The composite scores are then ranked relative to each other. Traders (and investors) should try to buy stocks early in the development of a strong positive trend. Even when investing in these stocks, investors should wait for a pullback (they should try to time their entry to coincide with when the stock has pulled back to its rising trendline or to a significant moving average). To reduce their risk exposure, many traders wait for the stock to respond to (or “bounce” off) the support expected at the trendline or moving average before they buy. Momentum-focused investors may simply jump on for the ride (without waiting for a pullback) and use a close stop lose to minimize loss if the stock aborts its rising trend. Since our algorithm finds stocks that have had “persistent strength,” we think is is reasonable to expect (but not guaranteed) that the stock will continue rising for awhile.
The “Setup Watch List,” the “Forum,” and “Wendy’s Place” (and the one-on-one telephone tutorials offered there) have all been taken “off-line” for now. We anticipate bringing them back after we complete some other projects. The General Tiger Model (trading trainees) and the ETF Tiger Model.
The “Alerts” Page
The particular stocks selected for posting are selected because they have satisfied the requirements of an R.C Allen triple moving average crossover system. Though these free alerts may lead you to some good trades, they never come from the top ten that are included on the R.C. Allen Alerts subscriber’s lists (the top ten are crossovers with the greatest volume surges). Why would we give away something equal to the best we have to offer and then try to run a business by charging a fee for something that is not any better? That would be self-destructive. If a given alert system generates 50 alerts, there may be only 3 or 4 out of the 50 that have an attractive setup pattern. A sample of ten stocks taken from the master list but not from the top ten on that list may occasionally include a good candidate, but the odds of finding good situations are far less than for subscribers (because they get the entire list which may include more than 30 or 50 stocks). Always check to see if the alert is generated after a “setup.” This is important. A stock that has generated an alert may still have to overcome significant resistance that is just above the current price before it can go any higher. That means the setup will not be attractive until that resistance is overcome. An alert is not a buy signal. A stock that has generated an alert must be visually inspected to see if there are any reasons to avoid the stock. The alert merely draws attention to the fact that certain conditions have been met that very often precede a surge in price. The visual inspection will help determine if there are other negative conditions or mitigating factors.
Everything Is Free!
People have developed the notion that they can get almost anything free of charge somewhere on the Internet. A common notion is that what one site charges a fee for, another site will offer free. However, this is true only of the more superficial and “commoditized” information. Who would be so foolish as to base a business model on products or services that are available elsewhere for free? We certainly wouldn’t. That would be like trying to sell widgets at the shopping mall even though free widgets were being given away in various shops at the mall just for walking in. Many people invest in the market using only the free resources available everywhere on the Internet because they do not want to spend the price of a day at Disneyland to obtain the tools necessary to do the job right. Some spend far more on entertainment or on a sporting event than they will spend to do a good job investing hundreds of thousands of dollars. For example, a day at Disneyland will probably cost a family well over $300, and it will get them nothing in return other than some temporary fun. On the other hand, use of our stop loss tool for six months costs only $114. Yet, it can help prevent the loss of many thousands of dollars (enough to pay for more trips to Disneyland than almost anyone would want). Think about it. It makes no sense. Whenever a person makes a trade, there is someone or something (a computer using artificial intelligence algorithms) on the other side of that trade. When you buy a stock, the transaction is possible because someone else is anxious to get rid of the stock that you want to buy. The other person is betting that your decision to buy is based on faulty or inadequate information. Too often people underestimate the intelligence or knowledge of the person on the other side of the trade. The individual with the better information and more capable discipline will tend to be the one who is on the right side of the transaction most of the time. Sometimes, being cheap is costly.