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PAL

       PAL is one of the tools we use to analyze market behavior patterns.  When we perform our scans, a considerable amount of data is automatically collected.  We have created a model/algorithm that collects the computations/outputs of many w\sub-algorithms.  It then makes use of this information to derive inferences, projections, and probabilities.  Some probabilities are seen at the end of the Market Status Report on the “Home” page.  Others are reflected in the Probability Alignment Monitor (PAM).  Still other probabilities may help formulate comments but may not be displayed.  The advantage of using computer-driven algorithms to gather data, conduct tests, and draw conclusions is that the approach tends to minimize, if not completely eliminate, human emotions and biases from the process.  Humans often overlook data available to them, or they may underestimate the importance of some data.  The PAL system reports are generated by proprietary Probability ALgorithms.  For the sake of brevity and convenience, we therefore refer to this model/system as PAL.  It is PAL that has been calculating “Intraday Key Levels,” resistance levels, and Group Pressure Gradients.  No human or system can predict precisely what the markets will do the following day.   PAL makes use of the data accumulated each day, and uses numerous algorithms to analyze and interpret the data.  The downside of the PAL report is that similar market conditions cause similar reactions from PAL.  That means similar phrases may be used more than once in a report (for example, if the Indexes have similar configurations).  That is, reports will often “sound” automated or “robot-like.”  That is because that is what they are. 
       It is important to remember that even when market conditions seem to have clarity and definition, sentiment can change in a moment because of a news event.  The result of sudden shifts in sentiment cannot be predicted, and they may result in market behavior that is completely outside the existing probability envelopes.  News events, by definition, cannot be predicted.  Thus, sudden trend reversals and other unexpected market behavior can occur at any moment of any day. 
       PAL‘s algorithms for tomorrow morning are based on very short-term data available as of the close of market today.  However, PAL cannot include in its computations the probability that investors will sell in order to lock in profits.  For example, assume that the Dow has risen for five consecutive days and that today’s action is exceptionally positive.  Neither PAL nor an  individual could determine in advance that investors were astonished at the recent performance and have become so nervous that they want to sell in order to lock in profits.  Even the investors themselves may not know this at the close of market.  They may conclude it is time to sell only after they have thought about it for a few hours or more, after they have had time to become nervous about the possibility of losing what they have gained.  So, if PAL says the probabilities favor an advance or decline tomorrow, it is on the basis of the most recent market activity as of today’s close.  PAL “knows” that an “overbought” condition in the market increases the probability of profit-taking, but it cannot predict profit-taking will occur.  Things can change quickly overnight because of a news event, or because people have increased in nervousness after an evening of fretting over the market’s action.  
       PAL computes resistances and supports.  Some of these are based on a probability analysis and recent volatility patterns.  For example, PAL may determine that shares are likely to retreat when a certain level is reached.  As with all lines of resistance, sellers may begin to unload their shares a little before that level is reached in order to avoid having to sell when others are driving prices lower.  The same thing occurs in reverse when shares approach a level of support.  Market patterns tell PAL that sellers or buyers are likely to enter the market as a certain level is approached.  Some levels of support and resistance are based on past patterns of accumulation and distribution.  For example, PAL can spot levels where support or resistance is likely to be encountered based on price patterns and the way share behavior tends to respond to those patterns.  Technicians know that there is likely to be support or resistance at a trendline or moving average, and that whether a trendline or moving average acts as support or resistance depends on whether the current price is above or below that line or average.  Why do we compute supports and resistances?  Knowing the location of support and resistance can be extremely helpful to tactical positioning, regardless of what the market does.  Knowing where supports and resistances are located can be the most important and useful information a trader/investor can use in buying or selling.    For example, smart investors often wait for share prices to approach or reach support before buying.  Then, they place the stop loss just below that support to reduce potential loss.  If there is sufficient selling to overwhelm the buyers at that level, there is good reason to sell.  Since the position was taken just above support and the stop loss is just below support, the potential loss is minimal.  That reduction in risk can enable a person to take a position when it would not be advisable otherwise.  A stop order to buy placed just above resistance can enable a person to take a position early on a breakout with minimal risk and without a need for constant monitoring.  Also, knowledge about the strength and location of support or resistance can be a help in estimating the probabilities associated with the market’s next move, or how far it is likely to be able to continue in a particular direction.  Some supports and resistances are static.  That is, they remain at the same level day after day.  Others are dynamic.  They vary from day to day.  For example, a long-term declining trendline will result in resistance (selling) at a lower price level each day until there is a breakout above the declining line of overhead resistance.  A rising 50-day moving average will provide a higher level of support each day until there is ultimately a break to the downside through that support..
       Most of this information is used by us internally.  However, we sometimes post some information on the Website.  When we do, we usually (but not always) include a link to this page.

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