lerts – McClellan Oscillator – Summation Index – Chande Momentum Oscillator – Stochastic Oscillator – Market Bias
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The Dow, S&P 500, & Nasdaq
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Moving Averages: 5-day (Blue), 20-day (Red), 50-day (Black Dotted) The MACD: The basic rule is to sell if MACD falls below broken signal line and buy if it rises above signal line. A crossing of the zero line is a confirmation of the signal. Divergences occur when price makes a new high or low, but the MACD does not, indicating a divergence between price and momentum. The RSI: Look for a divergence between the Index and RSI. If the Dow rises and the RSI declines, it is a warning that the rise is not to be trusted. The RSI tends to top above 70 and bottom below 30. How to Use: The MACD can help identify trends and momentum changes. The RSI can help identify overbought or oversold conditions..
Market Status Report (Donchian 5×20 Signals Are Reported)
▬ Today, the Dow closed at 42740.42, down 324.8 points or 0.75%, the S&P 500 closed at 5815.26 down, 44.59 points or 0.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 18315.58 down, 187.1 points or 1.01%.
▬ A buy signal has been generated by all three stock benchmarks. Relative to yesterday’s readings, for all three, the 4-day moving average has risen, the 9-day moving average has risen, and the 18-day moving average has risen. Probabilities are are still weighted in favor of a rising Dow, rising S&P 500, and rising Nasdaq. PAL suggests reviewing the tech stocks. Though those stocks came under pressure today, the alignments are favoring a bullish outlook.
The last signal generated by the Dow was a BUY. Signal date: 9/16
The last signal generated by the S&P 500 was a BUY. Signal date: 9/16
The last signal generated by the Nasdaq was a BUY. Signal date: 9/17
▬ We estimate that if a stock benchmark is above our estimated bullish target level for more than 30 minutes of the first hour of trading, that benchmark is very likely (≈ 80% probability) to close higher. The bullish target value for the Dow is 42,928. The bullish target for the S&P 500 is 5,834. The bullish target for the Nasdaq Composite Index is 18,380. On the other hand, if a stock benchmark is below our estimated bearish target level for more than 30 minutes of the first hour of trading, that benchmark Is very likely (80% probability) to close lower. The bearish target value for the Dow is 42,552. The bearish target for the S&P 500 is 5,796. The bearish target for the Nasdaq Composite Index is 18,251.
What is PAL? Updated 10/15/24
Stocks with “Persistent Strength”
When we say a stock is “strong,” we are referring to strength that is very different from that found by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool popular with traders. Our own strength indicator is far more complex. If you scan 2000 stocks with the Relative Strength Index, you will often find that the stocks that rank high are NOT really attractive because of overhead resistance or because the surge of strength measured is not really significant for some other reason (a non-significant rebound in a bad pattern). The latest surge may be only a snap-back reaction toward the previously penetrated neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern (a very bearish configuration). The list selected by our own algorithms will actually look far more attractive on a visual inspection. When you look at our highest ranked “strength” stocks, you will know you are looking at stocks that are really strong
This is updated daily. When the black line with dots (the indicator line) is above the horizontal blue line, this indicator is telling us that the market has a positive or bullish bias (in the short-term to intermediate-term, even if not in the long-term). If the black dotted line is declining toward the horizontal line, bullish sentiment is decreasing but still present. A negative or bearish bias will be indicated when the black line crosses below the horizontal line.
Assume, that the market has a positive bias (the black line is above zero). If the green line is rising, it is confirming that the environment is supporting bullishness. In this case, long-term and intermediate-term investors who take bearish positions will be in an environment that is working against them. A declining green line in a market with a positive bias means the positive bias is not currently being confirmed … the MBI is detecting counter-currents of negative momentum that are not yet significant enough to change the market’s positive bias status. That means investors may find situations where bearish positions can be taken with somewhat less risk than when the market has a confirmed bullish bias, but because the general environment is bullish, there is still risk in taking bearish positions. Great caution is recommended. Money can be made only on carefully selected bearish positions taken by short-term or intermediate-term investor/traders who know how to trade bearish positions in a market with a positive bias. If the black indicator line crosses below the dark red dashed line, it means that the bearish sentiment is becoming more significant, but since the black line is still above zero, probabilities still favor bullish positioning. In this environment, carefully selected bearish positions are more likely to be profitable than before the black line crossed below the dashed line. From the perspective of an experienced short-term trader, the non-confirmed reading is giving a “go-ahead” for quick bearish trades. Here, the indicator would be giving nuanced information a level deeper than most indicators. If the market has a positive bias, a green line turning down merely means the conditions are not “optimal” for short-term bullish positions. That does not mean they cannot be very profitable if carefully chosen. However, a downturn of the green line in a market with a negative bias is much more problematic for bullish positioning, even for very short-term traders.
Assume, that the market has a negative bias (the black line is below zero). If the green line is declining, it is confirming that the environment is supporting bearishness. In this case, long-term and intermediate-term investors who take bullish positions will be in an environment that is working against them. A rising green line in a market with a negative bias means the negative bias is not currently being confirmed … the MBI is detecting counter-currents of positive momentum that are not yet significant enough to change the market’s negative bias status. That means investors may find situations where bullish positions can be taken with somewhat less risk than when the market has a confirmed bearish bias, but because the general environment is bearish, there is still risk in taking bullish positions. Great caution is recommended. Money can be made only on carefully selected bullish positions taken by short-term or intermediate-term investor/traders who know how to trade bullish positions in a market with a negative bias. If the black indicator line crosses above the dark red dashed line, it means that the bullish sentiment is becoming more significant, but since the black line is still below zero, probabilities still favor bearish positioning. In this environment, carefully selected bullish positions are more likely to be profitable than before the black line crossed above the dashed line. From the perspective of an experienced short-term trader, the non-confirmed reading is giving a “go-ahead” for quick bullish trades. Here, again, the indicator would be giving nuanced information a level deeper than most indicators. In a market with a negative bias, a rising green line is letting an investor know that if they are very careful, there are some opportunities. For example, a setup pattern could offer a good opportunity for a 1-week price surge [a pre-surge “setup” pattern is meant here. For more on these patterns see the bottom half of the Stock Alerts page on this site]. A swing-trader may take such a position to participate in the surge and sell immediately as the surge loses momentum. These trades can enable a person to capture a gain of maybe 3% to 12% and sometimes much more than that (we have captured more than 30% in a single day).
As for the green line, its position above or below either the black Indicator line (or Dashed red line) is not relevant. It is the direction of the green line, not its position, that is relevant.
The dashed red line can be used in combination with the black dotted line as a short-term buy/sell signal generator, but all signals must be confirmed by the green confirmation line. For example, say the black dotted line is below the horizontal line (indicating a negative market bias), and it crosses above the dashed dark-red line. If, at the same time, the green line is rising, then a cross above the red line may be interpreted as a buy signal in a negative environment for a short-term trade. All such signals must be viewed with respect to the prevailing context and the risks implied by the current configurations. Nothing on this Website should be interpreted as a buy or sell recommendation. Our indicators may generate buy or sell signals, but never buy or sell recommendations.
So, what if the Indicator line is above zero (indicating a positive bias), but it has crossed below the broken red line? If the green line is declining, it is confirming that bearish positions can be taken within the bullish environment. However, it must be remembered that risk is higher than if the market has a bearish bias. If the green line is rising, it is not confirming the short-term sell signal created by the Indicator line crossing below the red dashed line. Instead, it is confirming the positive bias indicated by the black indicator line’s position above the zero line.
On the other hand, if the Indicator line is below zero (indicating a negative bias), but it has crossed above the broken red line, simply reverse what was said in the above comments. This indicator is sensitive. For example, it gave a “sell signal” two days before the market meltdown in 1987. More information on MBI
Price Surges (Updated Daily)
Nasdaq: CMO, Stochastic, RSI, and CCI See CCI
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The following explanations are in the order shown in the above charts … all are for the Nasdaq.
The CMO: Extreme readings start at ±50, and 0 is neutral. At 50, the up-day momentum is three times the down-day momentum, and the reverse is true for a reading of -50. Some comparisons with the RSI might be helpful, since they are both useful in similar ways. The CMO directly measures momentum by using data for both up and down days in its numerator, whereas the RSI uses data for only the up days in its numerator. The CMO employs no smoothing in its calculation, so short-term extremes are not covered by any averaging process. The RSI has built-in smoothing. The CMO scale ranges from -100 to +100 so the direction and value readings are instantly clear and intuitive. The center of the RSI scale is 50 rather than zero. A Change: We now display the 20-day CMO (previously showed 14-day). The charts for Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 now display the 14-day CMO (previously showed more volatile 10-day CMO)
The Stochastic Oscillator: A reading of 70 or more is “overbought” and a reading of 30 or less is “oversold.” A cross from above to below 70 is considered by most technicians to be a short-term sell signal. A cross from below to above 30 is considered a short-term buy signal. Some technicians prefer to use 80 and 20 rather than 70 and 30. Note: There is another chart of the Stochastic Oscillator below, but there may be slight differences in their readings because the images are taken at slightly different times, and data may still be coming in when the charts are generated.
The RSI: Look for a divergence between the Index and the RSI. For example, if the Dow rises and the RSI declines, it is a warning that the rise is not to be trusted, and that a decline may be about to occur. The RSI tends to top above 70 and bottom below 30. It usually forms its tops and bottoms before the stock or index on which the RSI is being used
The CCI: Traders often check the CCI to see if there is divergence between it and its underlying security. They also look for overbought and oversold conditions. If the Nasdaq is making new highs but the CCI is not, for example, then the Nasdaq is probably heading for a correction or pullback of unknown magnitude. The CCI usually ranges between +100 and -100. If it is above +100, the underlying security is considered to be overbought. If it is below -100, the underlying security is considered to be oversold. However, there is much more nuance to the usefulness of this analytical tool. Learn more..
McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
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The McClellan Oscillator (left chart) is a breadth-of-market indicator. It is effective for interpreting short-to-intermediate-term market moves. The McClellan Summation Index (right chart) is a running total of each day’s McClellan Oscillator value. The Summation Index is effective for interpreting intermediate-to-long-term market moves. Together, they can be useful in evaluating the dynamics of the ebb and flow of the market, and in planning entry and exit points.
Oscillator readings of 150 (plus or minus) are extreme and tend to correlate well with buying and selling climaxes in the market. The Oscillator reaches these extreme values, measuring overbought and oversold conditions, in advance of market turns. It then passes through zero at or very soon after market turning points (to put this in perspective, extreme readings occur much less frequently than a pass through zero. The type of action to be taken, if any, depends on the major trend of the market (as indicated, for example, by the Summation Index) and on whether the move originated from an extreme reading. Thus, in the early and middle phases of a bull market emphasis might best be placed on buy signals. In a bull market, buy signals occur earlier, and positions can be taken when the oscillator clearly moves out of its basing pattern, even if it is still negative. In a bear market, sell signals occur when the oscillator moves clearly put of a topping formation, even if it is still positive.
The amplitude of the oscillations above and below zero correlates with the general volatility of the market. The oscillator shows distinct cycles (lasting 22 to 24 weeks) between significant bottoming formations. Divergence between oscillator moves and conventional market indicators forecasts an impending change in market direction. Conventional trend-line theory can be applied to oscillator patterns. For example, a triple top formation in the McClellan Oscillator forecasts a termination of the preceding up-trend.
If the Summation Index is rising (or declining), it is intermediate-term bullish (bearish if declining) and the market’s trend is up (down if the Index is declining). If the Index is declining, the first positive sign will be a slight narrowing of the gaps between postings. The second positive sign is a flattening out of the entries (but this stage is sometimes skipped). The third positive sign is a reversal in direction. Some investors use the second posting in the positive direction as an early buy signal). They view the opposite conditions as negative, culminating in a sell signal.
The bottom line in the yellow section of the above table shows the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates. When short-term rates are greater than long-term rates, the difference is negative. The above data can be very useful when formulating an investment outlook or strategy. When short-term rates are 1.3% to 2% below long-term rates, the difference is positive, and investors expect normal economic growth (2-3 percent per year). When the spread is greater, they expect even faster growth because the Central Bank is likely pushing rates down. This reduces the cost of borrowing for companies so they can expand capital investment. When short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, Central Banks are probably trying to curb inflation. Economic conditions are expected to deteriorate. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates by 1.5% or more, there is a 70% chance the economy will go into recession within the next 12-months. The foregoing can serve as an investment guide. If short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, tighten stops or take other protective measures. If they are 1% or more higher, consider moving to cash (the short-term curve was this far above the long-term curve in 2000 and a 3-year bear market began in that year). When short-term rates are less than 1% below long-term rates, stable growth stocks are attractive. When short-term rates are 1% to 3% less than long-term rates, stocks are even more attractive (a stock-picker’s market). If the spread is more than 3%, invest with the premise that inflation could start to heat up soon.
Stochastic Oscillator
Left chart is the Dow. Right chart is the Nasdaq
The Stochastic Oscillator indicates where a security’s closing price is relative to its trading range over the last x-time periods. There are several ways to interpret the oscillator. First, buy when the oscillator falls below 20 and then moves above that level, and sell when it rises above 80 and then falls below that level. However, it is important to determine if the security (or market index) is trending by using an indicator like a moving average (note whether the average is rising, falling, or moving sideways). If the market is non-trending, then trades based on overbought/oversold levels should produce the best results. If the market is trending, hen the oscillator can be used to enter trades in the direction of the trend. Second, buy when the solid line rises above the broken line and sell when it falls below it. Third, look for divergences. When the security (or market index) is making a series of new highs and the Stochastic Oscillator is failing to surpass its previous highs, we have a warning signal.
The oscillator is a very short-term indicator that tends to be most helpful when trying to determine the probable directing of a security or index in the days immediately ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator used here is known as a “fast” oscillator. Because there is no smoothing in its “K” line, it is very sensitive and will tend to give more false signals than a “slow Stochastic Oscillator.” The greater number of false signals is a trade-off tolerated by shorter-term traders who prefer very sensitive indicators that give immediate indications of current security/market conditions.
Keep It Simple Strategy
First, consider the S&P 500. It consists of a mix of small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap stocks. More than half are mid-cap or small cap. However, because of the way they are weighted in computing the Index (more weight is given to the large cap stocks), the S&P500 is considered by many to be a large cap Index. However, with the following strategy, you are not investing in the Index as it is weighted. Instead, you would be investing in individual stocks drawn from a pool consisting of stocks having a wide range of market capitalizations. As of August 2024, the S&P 500’s total return over the last 10 years is 325.1%, with an average annualized return of 15.6%. The S&P 500’s average annualized return between 2003 and 2023 was 10.20%, and the average rate of return since 2013 was 13.05%. These returns do NOT include dividends. There can be a great deal of fluctuation from year to year, but historically, average returns over various stretches of time have been respectable.
Consider the fact that the return for each year is the result of the pluses and minuses contributed to the Index by each of the stocks in it. An index return of 15% might be the result of some stocks rising 20% or 30% or more and other stocks declining enough to drop the total gain of the Index to 15%. The net return would be the result after falling stocks have canceled out some of the performance of the rising stocks. There may even be more declining stocks than rising stocks, causing the Index to have a negative return even though many of the stocks in the index rose during the same period. Now, what do you think the average returns would be if an investor always had the strongest stocks in his portfolio, and there were no losers to cancel out the performance of the strong ones?
The Strategy
Each day we rank stocks that make up the S&P 500 and provide a list of the top 50 in strength. The investor can use the list in several ways. He might select the top ten out of the fifty for investment if he thinks they are suitable (the top 10 would be the strongest 2% of the 500 stocks in the Index). Once a week (or daily), he could replace any that fall out of the top 10, 20, 30, or whatever, with the stocks that have moved up to the top 10 (or 20). As you can see, there are many variations possible for the basic strategy. For example, you could keep the selected stocks until they fall out of the top 50 and then replace them with those in the top ten that you do not have. Or, you could make these adjustments once a month or once a quarter rather than once a week. Another approach is that you could pick and choose whatever catches your fancy from among the top 20, and replace them when they fall out of the top t20 or 50. An alternative sell strategy would be to sell those stocks that close below their lowest closing price of the previous 10 or 20 days, on the rationale that such stocks would probably no longer be in an uptrend. The could then be replaced by stocks in the top 10, 20, or whatever.
To cut down on excessive and meaningless trading, these strategies depend on a strength algorithm that finds more persistent strength than what is found by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It should find stocks that are trending or beginning to trend. Also, we want the trend to have relative consistency of behavior. That is, we prefer to avoid having lists of stocks that have spiked up 50% overnight, though it may not be possible to filter out all of those. The RSI cannot satisfy these requirements, but we do have an algorithm that does. The other part of the strategy requires a universe of limited size but made up of respectable stocks (not a lot of penny stocks or new issues). That is why we focus on the S&P 500. It should be limited in size because using this strategy on a list of several thousand stocks would probably mean excessive (and meaningless) turnover. There would be too many candidates for each position, and rankings would probably change too often on unimportant differences.
Managing The List
We keep the basic list more stable than the makeup of the S&P 500, because the managers of the Index sometimes remove stocks that have excellent performance and outlook (because of weighting and balancing considerations). If they want one more stock in Finance, they might throw out a perfectly fine stock in Technology so the weightings would balance right for their model. Keeping the database more stable enables us to give better follow-up on stocks in which you may have invested (and stocks are less likely to disappear from the list suddenly without warning or obvious reason). Of course, if a stock is delisted or if its company is merged with another company we would want to replace it with another from the S&P 500. We just do not want to add or subtract stocks simply because of Index balancing considerations, because those are “artificial changes,” having no bearing on the quality of the company or the attractiveness of its stock. Also, we are not investing in the Index, but in individual stocks of relatively high quality. A few companies have more than one class of shares. We track one class of shares for each of those companies, limiting our list to 500 stocks. Also, if a stock is dropped from the S&P 500, we may not replace it immediately, so the list could consist of less than 500 stocks for some of the time between list updates. The lists are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are simply lists of stocks, having the highest ranking scores. Reports may be created mid-day, so prices are not always closing prices.
What’s In The Valuator?
Stocks With Highest Persistent Strength Ranking
See what this means
Stocks With Lowest PE-Ratios
Probable High and Low Price Range For Each Stock
Stocks With Lowest and Highest RSI
10-Day Momentum For each Stock
The ATR (Average True Range) For Each Stock
What Can I Do With The Valuator?
SETUPS: Increase your odds of making a profit by focusing on “setups,” chart configurations that are most often seen before a price surge. Be sure to wait for the “trigger event.” A “trigger event” is your buy signal, assuming there is not overhead resistance or other contrary indications. For more on setups, go the Q&A page and read item 13. Then use the link at the end of that explanation.
What is PAL?
These Indicator charts will be updated weekly (sometimes more often). If an indicator chart is based on more than one day, it can take several days for the indicator to show much of a change even if the index makes a big move on a single day. Even if an indicator is very sensitive to daily Index changes, it can be helpful to compare the current Index with the posted chart.
The Trading Result For One Of Our Traders
Long ago we proved to our own satisfaction (by trading with real money) that to obtain gains of more than 50% a year it is not necessary to invest in options, currencies, or commodities. It can be done simply by buying and selling stock. All you need is a good discipline (and that you actually follow your discipline). That is what this site is all about. We do not make a practice of revealing the performance of company traders. There is little reason to do so, and it is nobody’s business but our own. However, one of our traders has given permission for us to share her performance on a one-time basis.
After brokerage fees, her net return for the year was 58%. All she did to obtain this return was to buy and sell stocks in a very bad market. She simply cut losses quickly, focused on good setups, and looked for trigger events. When it was time to sell, she did not talk herself out of it or “argue” with the evidence. She also did not sit “glued” in front of her computer. She entered her trades and set her stop losses. Often, the only time she could check her positions was long after the market closed. She did not have to agonize about margined positions held overnight because they were not part of her discipline.
It might also be worth mentioning that to optimize liquidity, to minimize the spread between bid and ask, and for risk-control reasons, she prefers to avoid stocks that trade for less than $5. Most of the stocks she trades are followed in The Valuator. This trader is a very private person who does not want to report her returns every year, so there is no plan to update this performance in future years. This report was posted shortly after the data was available, and it will be left here for future visitors.
Please be aware that she did have major distractions during this year that almost certainly got in the way of her achieving a significantly greater return. In other words, this was by no means the best she could do. However, she allowed us to reveal her performance anyway in order to encourage others and to show that returns above 50% are achievable (even under less than ideal conditions). [Portfolio returns above 50% per year can be achieved by trading relatively high quality stocks priced above $5 in a cash account.
The discipline used by this trader is extremely low in risk, much lower than the risk assumed by the average mutual fund investor or the buy-and-hold investor in individual stocks. Yes, she could have achieved a much higher return if she had kept her positions highly leveraged. She does not wish to take that route. Greed destroys discipline. Here is a little known fact worth considering. 80% of the people who fully leverage their investments in the futures markets eventually lose all their money. Some people do well in the futures markets. The same can be said for some who trade penny stocks and currencies. However, it is not the use of leverage that makes a winner, but the use of a good discipline. Too many people don’t get that fact.
The discipline used to achieve the above return is our own creation. We do not make it available to the public as part of any service or training program. In other words, we are not providing this performance information to solicit your enrollment in any kind of program. It is provided only to encourage people to be diligent in the development of their own discipline. We will leave this report here to encourage others who may be wondering if working at developing a discipline is worth the effort.
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Silver – Gold – Platinum – Paladium
According to the source for the following, the spot price of gold is determined by the London bullion market twice a day – at 10:30am and at 3pm – London time (2:30 am & 7am Pacific time).