R.C. Allen Alerts


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R.C. Allen Alerts

With this subscription we list alerts generated by R.C.Allen’s 4x9x18 triple moving average crossover alert system. The system used was first introduced and made popular by R.C. Allen (How to Build A Fortune in Commodities) as an effective tool for trading both stocks and commodities. To create the lists, we scan thousands of stocks. The lists are ranked in order of the magnitude of the surge in volume, with the greatest volume surges at the top of the list.

The Alert System Used is as follows.

1.) An “Up Alert” means that the 4-day MA is above the 9-day MA and the 9-day MA is above the 18-day MA. — If a stock is rising, its shorter moving averages will move up faster than its longer moving averages. Waiting for all moving averages to align correctly gives time for momentum to build, and it helps a potential buyer avoid some false starts. This is one of the ways the strategy incorporates discipline. The alert to a possible “buy” signal occurs when the 4-day moving average crosses above the 9-day moving average. The actual buy signal occurs when the 9-day moving average crosses above the 18-day moving average while the 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day moving average. If at the time the 9-day moving average crosses above the 18-day moving average, the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average, there is no signal unless and until the 4-day moving average crosses back above the 9-day. Conversely, a “Down Alert” means that the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average and the 9-day moving average has just crossed below the 18-day MA.

2.) Furthermore, an “Up Alert” means that the 9-day moving average was recently below the 18-day moving average. — This implies the stock was recently declining and may be just beginning to rise. Here, the idea is to catch a stock at the beginning of a new trend. A “Down Alert” means that the 9-day moving average was recently above the 18-day moving average. This implies the stock was recently rising and may be just beginning to decline.

3.) R.C. Allen said that “In a bull market, the volume of sales should increase as prices rise. If the volume does not increase, it may be a false move or ‘trap.’ Even though your charts may show a ‘breakout’ towards higher levels, the up move should never be trusted unless it occurs with an increase in the volume of the sales.” The same thing can be said of down moves. If volume declines on a down move, that move should not to be trusted.  Under the heading “Vol %” we give the 1-day change in volume on the day the 9-day moving average crossed the 18-day moving average.

4.) R.C. Allen only required the alignment of moving averages as described in item 1. What if you have an “Up Alert” in which the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day moving average but declining? This could be an indication that the signal may result in a whipsaw (a sell signal shortly after the buy signal).  Some people will, therefore, wait for the 4-day moving average to be rising att he same time it is above the 9-day average.  You can screen out such “setups” by looking at a chart with the 4-day moving average plotted.  A stock is listed as giving an alert based on a strict compliance with Allen’s system. However, in addition to the proper alignment of moving averages, you may use the 4-day moving average to provide added confirmation of the signal by requiring that it also be moving in the direction of the crossover.

5.) The “R.C. Allen” column identifies the type of alert generated (Up or Dn).

R.C. Allen’s system has been used successfully by thousands of traders over many years.

Lists: The lists could have up to 100 stocks when the market surges, but the list often has less than 20 stocks.  Most of the time, probably 10 to 20 stocks are listed.  Of course, there is a new list every week.

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Published by Dr. Winton Felt

Dr. Winton Felt Educational background. Dr. Felt did his graduate level studies in Systems Engineering/Applied Mathematics, English, Management, and Clinical Psychology. During a good portion of the time he was involved in his graduate studies, Dr. Felt also operated his own business, teaching advanced reading and study techniques at four colleges in Southern California, and conducting special classes for various Christian organizations. General history of securities-related experience. Felt began his study of security trading patterns (emphasizing the “point-and-figure” method and outcome probabilities associated with various patterns) when he was in his early 20's. He became a professional in the financial services industry in 1985. He did his basic brokerage training at Merrill Lynch and achieved perfect scores on the “Series 7” in the areas of “Portfolio Analysis” and “Investment Strategies.” At Merrill Lynch he became the “Mutual Fund Coordinator.” A few years later, he was recruited by Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards (Everen Securities) to finish the development of a stock-trading system and to use it in managing a pooled account. He then founded Asset Management Systems and continued his work on the development, analysis, and evaluation of investment disciplines and strategies. He used multivariate analysis to test the profitability of more than 50,000 investment strategies. He then used the results of his analyses to design high total-return strategies. He also wrote algorithms to enable a computer to search through thousands of stocks to identify those that have any of a variety of behavior patterns known as "setups," price and volume configurations that most often occur shortly before a price surge. Dr. Felt created the Market Bias Indicator (MBI), also known as the Felt Oscillator, the Force of Trend (Group Pressure Gradient) indicator, and a procedure for discovering what he calls "Key Intraday Levels." He managed portfolios, created investment disciplines, created the publication originally known as Value Indicator (later renamed The Valuator), created what was originally a 70-page weekly publication known as StockAlerts (our present StockAlerts subscription service is a derivation and subset of this no longer available publication), and was the founder of Stock Disciplines, LLC. Work and licenses before becoming the principal officer of Stock Disciplines, LLC. Dr. Felt has held various licenses as an investment professional. During the years immediately before he became the principal officer of Felt Financial, LLC. (through which he managed investment advisory accounts), Dr. Felt held a “Series 7” General Securities license and was registered with the NASD. He also held a “Series 24” license issued by the NASD. A “Series 7” will qualify a person to be a “Registered Representative” or “Investment Broker,” and is the license held by the more qualified “brokers” at major brokerage houses. This license is a prerequisite to sitting for the “Series 24” exam. The “Series 24” license is required for those who supervise other brokers (securities regulations stipulate that every Broker/Dealer firm must have at least one individual who is licensed as a "General Securities Principal"). Having both a “Series 7” and a “Series 24,” Dr. Felt had the NASD designation “General Securities Principal” (it should be noted that registration and licensing by the State of California, the SEC, or the NASD does not represent a mark of approval or endorsement by these regulatory bodies, but that certain standards of knowledge and other requirements have been satisfied). During this time, Dr. Felt was affiliated with Titan Value Equities Group, Inc. as a Registered Representative, a Registered Principal, an Advisory Associate, and as the manager of an Office of Supervisory Jurisdiction. Felt Financial, LLC. (of which Dr. Felt was the principal officer), remained in the investment advisory business as a Registered Investment Advisor until December 31, 2005. After that date Felt Financial, LLC. became Stock Disciplines, LLC., and the firm (and Dr. Felt) stopped providing investment advisory services (use the link below for more on why the advisory business was abandoned). Dr. Felt has also conducted investment strategy seminars and tutorials for investors and brokers. Past Affiliations. Biola University in La Mirada, Asset Management Systems located in Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, and Felt Enterprises with primary locations in Oceanside and Carlsbad in California, USA. Articles Published. To see a few articles written by Dr. Felt, click on Articles. If you know or have ever met Lawrence, Carolyn, Winton, Shirley, Wendy, Anthony, Larry, or Gail, we have a message for you. Read The Message For more on Dr. Felt's strategy testing and why he stopped managing money for others, see item #10 after clicking on Leaving the advisory business. Return to About Us for information about the company. View